Black Friday is the informal name for the day immediately following Thanksgiving Day in the United States, which falls on Friday, November 28, 2025. Historically, the day was considered the unofficial start of the Christmas shopping season. The "Black" in the name traditionally refers to the point when retailers' accounting books would move from being "in the red" (losing money) to being "in the black" (making a profit). It was famous for chaotic, in-store "door-buster" deals.
Today, Black Friday has transformed into a global, multi-week retail season extending from late October through Cyber Monday (December 1, 2025). The focus has overwhelmingly shifted online, driven by tech, convenience, and sophisticated shopper planning. In 2025, it’s not just about a single-day sale; it’s about a strategic hunt for value across all digital channels.
I. The Strategic Shopper: Value, Trust, and Early Planning
The 2025 Black Friday consumer is highly strategic, driven by economic caution and a deep skepticism toward advertised deals. They plan early to maximize savings and manage tighter budgets.
A. The Black November Advantage
The notion of a single-day event is obsolete. The shopping season now spans "Black November," with retailers launching "early access" and "VIP member" sales as early as late October. This rewards loyalty and allows cautious shoppers to spread their spending. Crucially, nearly 63% of shoppers plan to start their holiday purchases well before the traditional November 28th date, demanding an extended promotional calendar from retailers.
B. Affordability over Percentage
Trust is the new currency. Surveys indicate significant shopper skepticism about inflated pre-sale prices. The most successful retailers are moving from generic percentage-off slogans (e.g., "50% off") to emphasizing affordability-led value. This means highlighting appealing final prices (e.g., "$99 on this must-have gadget") and demonstrating clear, authentic savings to overcome consumer wariness.
C. The BNPL and Flexible Payment Boom
The "Buy Now, Pay Later" (BNPL) model is now a core part of the financing strategy for big purchases. Cyber Monday 2025 is projected to be the first day to cross $1 billion in BNPL spending alone. This service is vital for budget-constrained consumers looking to acquire high-ticket items—like appliances and large electronics—by splitting the cost into manageable, interest-free installments.
II. The Digital Engine: AI, Mobile, and Social Commerce Dominance
Black Friday is an overwhelmingly digital event, with technology fueling a hyper-personalized shopping experience. U.S. online spending is forecasted to exceed $253 billion, with mobile being the dominant channel.
A. AI-Powered Personalization and Shopping Assistants
Artificial Intelligence is the invisible hand of 2025 shopping, moving beyond simple recommendations to sophisticated, unique deal delivery.
Generative AI Comparison: Nearly half (48%) of global shoppers are expected to use generative AI tools (like Gemini) to compare prices, track deals, and plan their purchases. Retailers must ensure their offers are easily discovered and competitive against AI-driven price trackers.
Hyper-Personalized Deals: Retailers are using AI to analyze browsing and purchase history, delivering unique, targeted "surprise deal drops" to individual users. This strategy replaces generic, mass-market discounts with exclusive offers to drive immediate conversion.
B. Mobile's Unquestioned Supremacy
Mobile devices account for over 56% of all online spending. Success is dictated by a flawless mobile experience: instant page load times, streamlined, one-click checkout, and app-exclusive early-access deals delivered via geo-targeted push notifications.
C. The Video Commerce Boom
Social media platforms are now direct points-of-sale. Shoppable video content on platforms like TikTok Shop and Instagram Reels allows users to purchase products instantly without leaving the app, creating a low-friction path to conversion. Live stream commerce events, hosted by influencers, create a digital sense of community and urgency, replicating the excitement of the old in-store "door-buster."
III. The 7 Biggest Discount Categories and Forecasts
Retailers are using a highly "surgical" discounting approach, applying the deepest cuts to specific traffic-driving products while protecting margins elsewhere.
| Category | Peak Discount Forecast (Average) | Key Shopping Day | Key Trend/Hot Product |
| Electronics | $approx 28% | Cyber Monday | 4K/OLED TVs, Laptops (Copilot+ PCs), Smart Home Gadgets |
| Toys & Games | $approx 27% | Black Friday | Viral collectible items (e.g., Labubu), new LEGO sets, Video Consoles |
| Apparel | $approx 25% | Cyber Monday | Winter basics, high-end athletic wear (stronger discounts than 2024) |
| Computers | $approx 23% | Cyber Monday | New AI-chip models, steep discounts on last-gen machines |
| Appliances | $approx 18% | Black Friday | Large kitchen and laundry appliances, high-end kitchen gadgets |
| Home Goods | $approx 18% | Cyber Week | Smart furniture, high-quality home essentials and upgrades |
| Grocery/Essentials | $approx 9% | Throughout Nov. | Stock-up buying of household necessities due to inflation |
The Retailer's Focus
Omnichannel Trust: Maintaining real-time, synchronized inventory is non-negotiable. Buy Online, Pick-up In-Store (BOPIS) continues to be a crucial strategy for offering instant gratification while securing deals digitally.
Logistics: Free, fast shipping and easy returns are mandatory baselines. 76% of shoppers demand free returns, forcing retailers to optimize supply chains to ensure a seamless experience.
VIP Retention: Offering loyalty members exclusive early access to the best deals is paramount. The Black Friday transaction is now the start of a relationship, with retailers focusing on leveraging new customer data to drive long-term, post-holiday retention.
The future of Black Friday is about targeted value delivered instantly to the hyper-aware shopper. Success lies in anticipating needs, building trust through transparency, and mastering the seamless digital-first experience.
